H1N1 Unlikely to Cause Flu Pandemic in 2010-11:
MONDAY, Oct. 18 (HealthDay News) -- Canadian researchers say
they do not expect the H1N1 virus -- the so-called swine flu -- to
be very severe this year, although they are recommending that
everyone over the age of 50, especially those with chronic health
conditions, get immunized this fall.
Researchers in British Columbia examined the results of blood
tests given to 1,127 people in the province both before and after
the 2009 pandemic. Before the pandemic, less than 10 percent of
children showed signs of antibodies, which are the "soldiers" in
the immune system that develop resistance to specific germs. By
contrast, more than three-quarters of people over the age of 80 had
the antibodies, suggesting they'd been exposed to the virus
This helps explain why children were so severely affected by
H1N1 compared to older people, the study authors noted.
In contrast, after the pandemic, 70 percent of people under the
age of 20 showed signs of this type of protection, according to the
report published online Oct. 18 in the
"The higher percentage with seroprotection [antibodies in blood] we observed in the young may have resulted from higher pandemic H1N1 infection rates and earlier prioritization of pandemic H1N1 vaccine to young children," said study co-author Dr. Danuta Skowronski, of the BC Centre for Disease Control and University of British Columbia, in a news release from the journal's publisher.
The researchers wrote that enough people appear to be protected
that "these findings reassure against the likelihood of a
substantial third pandemic H1N1 wave during the 2010-2011 season,
unless there is a significant waning of antibody or change in the
They also found that "adults 50 to 79 years exhibited the lowest
seroprotection and also remain at higher risk of severe outcomes if
infected. Our findings support a shift from the prioritized
immunization of the young that occurred in fall 2009 to prioritized
immunization of older adults for the coming 2010-2011 influenza
season to protect against severe outcomes due to both pandemic and
Dr. Peter Katona, associate professor of clinical medicine at
the University of California at Los Angeles, cautioned, however,
that it's impossible to know for sure what the flu will do. "Flu is
unpredictable regardless of what the models say and what the early
surveillance says," he said in an interview. "It can go in
different directions for complicated reasons that you can't figure
out in advance."
In an accompanying study, researchers affiliated with Mount
Sinai Hospital and the University of Toronto report that Canada's
response to the epidemic offers lessons: "Last year's events
clearly show that our current methods of vaccine production are too
slow for an adequate response to a pandemic, that much of our
planning for pandemic-related vaccination was incomplete, and that
even the best intentioned program can be undermined by
unanticipated internal and external events."
As for the American response, Katona said, "I'd be careful to be
critical. This was a complicated and difficult task for the health
authorities. They took on a huge challenge."
The U.S. National Library of Medicine has more on
Copyright © 2010
. All rights reserved.
Please be aware that this information is provided to supplement the care provided by your physician. It is neither intended nor implied to be a substitute for professional medical advice. CALL YOUR HEALTHCARE PROVIDER IMMEDIATELY IF YOU THINK YOU MAY HAVE A MEDICAL EMERGENCY. Always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified health provider prior to starting any new treatment or with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition.